Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50f2…e55a sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$190 (-44%) realized −$189 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$17
sports 39% −$111
crypto 15% −$62
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.3% -24.3% 50% 50% -28.5%
≤30d 23 -31.9% -38.4% 30% 26% -38.7%
≤90d 29 -46.0% -51.2% 24% 21% -60.4%
all 29 -46.0% -51.2% 24% 21% -60.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.2% 21% -60.4%
10% -55.8% 17% -64.2%
15% -60.1% 17% -67.6%
20% -64.0% 14% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage43d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$31 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $13 −$1 -7%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 +$10 +324%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Madagascar end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 +$2 +70%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - BLA May 12 $29 −$26 -89%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - BLAST R May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - BLAST May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? May 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $60 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $24 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 14d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 14d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 14d
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 14d
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 14d
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 14d
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 14d
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 14d
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 16d
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 16d
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16d
Will Morocco vs. Madagascar end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 16d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 16d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 16d
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 16d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 16d
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $22 16d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 16d
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 16d
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16d
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 16d
Will Türkiye vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 16d
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.04 · official $82.04 (match) · 47 history records