Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x50f1…abab politics 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+9%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
politics 36% +$2
economics 17% $0
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 25% -5.1%
all 4 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 25% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 25% -5.1%
10% -11.7% 25% -14.2%
15% -20.3% 0% -22.5%
20% -28.1% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 63¢ 89¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 11 $2 $0 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $2 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.70 · official $18.70 (match) · 11 history records