Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

50 0x50f0…5dbe sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$171 (+38%) realized +$147 · open +$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip

Net edge+38%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$113per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+43.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+58.9%	+43.7%	67%	67%	+50.5%
≤30d	3	+58.9%	+43.7%	67%	67%	+50.5%
≤90d	3	+58.9%	+43.7%	67%	67%	+50.5%
all	3	+58.9%	+43.7%	67%	67%	+50.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+43.7%	67%	+50.5%
10%	+30.0%	67%	+36.1%
15%	+17.4%	67%	+23.0%
20%	+5.9%	67%	+10.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +66% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +59% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$140 vs −$13 · ×10.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×21.59 per $1 lost it wins $21.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$74

Realized+$147

Unrealized+$24

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$113

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	9z	32¢	48¢	$50	$74	+$24 (+48%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$102	+$102	+100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$102	−$13	-13%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$199	+$179	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	32¢	$51	47m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	SELL 9z	72¢	$95	48m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	SELL 9z	83¢	$109	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	BUY 9z	38¢	$102	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	45¢	$89	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$199	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.22 · official $74.22 (match) · 8 history records