Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x50ea…48db crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25,770 (+21%) realized +$19,733 · open +$6,037
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate77%41W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$2,238per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$17,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$449
14 days+$449
30 days+$7,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 41% +$13,975
crypto 37% +$5,781
other 16% +$2,528
world 3% −$348
politics 2% +$784
sports 2% −$544
culture 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.5% +12.6% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤30d 15 -7.9% -16.7% 73% 40% +9.1%
≤90d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 42% +8.3%
all 53 +2.9% -6.9% 77% 45% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 45% +4.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 23% -5.9%
15% -24.0% 11% -15.0%
20% -31.4% 8% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,073) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$424 vs −$101 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.34 per $1 lost it wins $14.34
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$17,597
Realized+$19,733
Unrealized+$6,037
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses41 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage233d
Avg bet$2,238
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 64¢ 99¢ $11,394 $17,462 +$6,069 (+53%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $157 $124 −$33 (-21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $1,509 +$421 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $134 +$28 +21%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $680 +$45 +7%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 03 $702 +$19 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $591 −$549 -93%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 −$23 -22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$46 -90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 29 $15,984 +$1,507 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 28 $10,418 +$4,765 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $4,828 +$1,230 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 22 $392 +$33 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $114 +$15 +13%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $123 +$21 +17%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $923 +$80 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $206 −$58 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 17 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $843 +$80 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $86 +$17 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 11 $80 +$5 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 09 $269 +$18 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 06 $352 −$16 -5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $42 −$2 -6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $30 +$5 +17%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $2,290 +$42 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 30 $324 +$27 +8%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $50 −$30 -60%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 17 $52 +$9 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $13,685 +$1,585 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $400 +$34 +8%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 30 $255 +$28 +11%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Dec 27 $769 −$442 -58%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 26 $315 −$8 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $2,514 +$55 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $10,006 +$1,658 +17%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Dec 07 $253 +$58 +23%
Will Trump sue the BBC? Dec 05 $1,073 +$686 +64%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 143m and 157m? Nov 30 $100 +$35 +35%
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? Nov 27 $342 +$10 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Nov 27 $387 +$40 +10%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $8,889 +$1,504 +17%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 25 $8,040 +$848 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $5,842 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $3,760 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1,931 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $80 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $82 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $134 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $40 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 59¢ $7,227 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 58¢ $11 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 58¢ $9 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 56¢ $721 15d
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca SELL Yes 100¢ $721 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $1,079 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7,843 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $116 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $157 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $70 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $233 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $132 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $132 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $4 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $132 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $132 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $132 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $25 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $280 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,596.60 · official $17,596.60 (match) · 300 history records