Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
50 0x50e9…5efe sports 1334 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,309 (-10%) realized −$2,884 · open −$425
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%653W / 635L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Fees−$350est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$402
14 days+$141
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$184
other 24% −$1,546
weather 4% +$266
culture 1% +$26
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$37
politics 0% −$14
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 60% +0.0%
≤30d 824 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 53% -8.9%
≤90d 1288 -3.6% -12.7% 51% 50% -12.8%
all 1288 -3.6% -12.7% 51% 50% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 50% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 49% -21.1%
15% -28.7% 45% -28.7%
20% -35.7% 37% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,920
Realized−$2,884
Unrealized−$425
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses653 / 635
Est. fees paid−$350
Open positions45
Markets (closed)1288 / 1334
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 1288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 51¢ 57¢ $258 $291 +$33 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $148 $205 +$57 (+39%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $175 $162 −$12 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $125 $138 +$12 (+10%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $70 $95 +$25 (+36%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 54¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $63 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Thomas Faurel 74¢ 72¢ $59 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $61 $51 −$10 (-17%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $42 $50 +$8 (+20%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $33 $46 +$13 (+41%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 31¢ 4¢ $357 $42 −$315 (-88%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 62¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ 76¢ $26 $38 +$12 (+44%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ 73¢ $38 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $39 $34 −$4 (-12%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Over 56¢ 56¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 42¢ $22 $33 +$11 (+48%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-12%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $50 $26 −$23 (-47%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 78¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 17 $15 +$60 +388%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $42 +$18 +42%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$39 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$10 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $73 +$27 +37%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$18 +152%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $29 +$71 +245%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $72 +$48 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $53 +$17 +32%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $23 +$7 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $159 +$41 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 +$45 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $33 +$67 +206%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 16 $30 +$6 +21%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $20 +$20 +101%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $23 +$7 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $98 +$102 +104%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $24 +$26 +108%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $27 +$13 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $68 +$32 +47%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $24 +$16 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$30 +100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $53 +$39 +74%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 +$30 +43%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $40 +$11 +27%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +64%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $9 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 5m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $33 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $2 19m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $24 20m
Vitinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $4 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $34 55m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $28 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $33 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $6 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 50¢ $15 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ $39 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $27 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 74¢ $60 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $16 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 46¢ $14 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 54¢ $33 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $17 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $15 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $64 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $66 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $52 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $3 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $30 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $42 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,920.02 · official $1,942.61 · 3500 history records