Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50e8…0105 sports 75 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,271 (-20%) realized −$10,271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%31W / 43L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$674per market
Trades / day85.2pace
Fees−$688est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,582
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 43% -24.8%
≤30d 74 -7.2% -16.1% 42% 42% -28.6%
≤90d 74 -7.2% -16.1% 42% 42% -28.6%
all 74 -7.2% -16.1% 42% 42% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 42% -28.6%
10% -24.1% 39% -35.4%
15% ← realistic here -31.4% 35% -41.7%
20% -38.2% 23% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$660) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$544 vs −$638 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$10,271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$688
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage6d
Avg bet$674
Trades / day85.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage EYEBALLERS 33¢ 33¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7,771 −$7,689 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2,301 −$2,276 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $909 −$898 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $4,831 +$4,321 +89%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $147 +$55 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $136 +$68 +50%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $299 −$296 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $382 −$373 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $69 −$67 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $247 −$244 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2,511 +$3,038 +121%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $1,371 +$508 +37%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $367 +$223 +61%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $145 +$281 +194%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $1,083 +$540 +50%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $276 −$269 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Minkens finest (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $492 −$482 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $340 +$175 +51%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $141 −$138 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $843 −$835 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gaming By Legends vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $411 −$405 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $184 +$790 +429%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $153 −$152 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $1,368 −$24 -2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $426 −$419 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $132 −$129 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 12 $489 −$482 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $283 +$123 +44%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $831 +$348 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,074 +$1,184 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $779 −$173 -22%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $75 +$37 +49%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $503 −$497 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 11 $103 −$101 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $401 −$392 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4,675 −$4,606 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Wingman vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 10 $47 +$81 +172%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $631 +$1,499 +238%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $589 +$546 +93%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $72 +$132 +184%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $300 +$352 +118%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $473 +$339 +72%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $797 +$631 +79%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $687 +$149 +22%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $1,116 −$1,092 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $552 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $539 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $539 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $51 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 65¢ $420 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $427 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $555 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $142 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $142 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $139 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $139 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $142 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $142 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $539 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $539 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $539 42h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $472 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $437 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $560 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $560 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $560 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $560 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $574 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $574 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $574 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $280 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $280 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 71¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $121 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $133 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.44 · official $33.44 (match) · 560 history records