Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

50 0x50e6…18b1 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%20W / 0L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$506per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$4

7 days+$6

14 days+$6

30 days+$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.3%
≤30d	7	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.3%
≤90d	17	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.3%
all	20	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.3%	0%	-9.3%
10%	-18.0%	0%	-18.0%
15%	-25.9%	0%	-25.9%
20%	-33.2%	0%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$608) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses20 / 0

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage102d

Avg bet$506

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$612	+$3	+0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$611	+$1	+0%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$610	+$2	+0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$610	+$1	+0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$608	+$1	+0%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in May?	Jun 11	$600	+$1	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3	Jun 01	$606	+$3	+0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	May 12	$600	+$1	+0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $3.00?	May 09	$600	+$1	+0%
Celtics vs. 76ers	Apr 28	$600	+$5	+1%
Will "Someone Has to Know" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Apr 22	$38	$0	+0%
Will "Crooks: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Apr 22	$78	$0	+0%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Apr 22	$180	$0	+0%
Will "Ronaldinho: The One and Only" be the top US Netflix show this we	Apr 22	$200	$0	+0%
Grizzlies vs. Jazz	Apr 11	$598	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 7?	Apr 09	$597	+$1	+0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Apr 01	$596	+$1	+0%
Bulls vs. 76ers	Mar 26	$595	+$1	+0%
Will "Jigsaw" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Mar 25	$594	+$1	+0%
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Mar 21	$594	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	100¢	$612	1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	100¢	$611	23h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY No	100¢	$610	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	100¢	$610	5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	100¢	$608	8d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$600	17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3	BUY Yes	100¢	$606	31d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	100¢	$600	44d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $3.00?	BUY Yes	100¢	$600	50d
Celtics vs. 76ers	BUY Celtics	99¢	$600	59d
Will "Crooks: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	BUY No	100¢	$78	68d
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	BUY No	100¢	$180	68d
Will "Someone Has to Know" be the top US Netflix show this week?	BUY No	100¢	$38	68d
Will "Ronaldinho: The One and Only" be the top US Netflix show this we	BUY No	100¢	$200	68d
Grizzlies vs. Jazz	BUY Jazz	100¢	$598	75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 7?	BUY Yes	100¢	$597	82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$596	91d
Bulls vs. 76ers	BUY 76ers	100¢	$595	91d
Will "Jigsaw" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	BUY No	100¢	$594	95d
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	BUY No	100¢	$594	102d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records