Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50e3…3792 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,273 (-9%) realized −$1,398 · open +$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$652
7 days+$652
14 days+$652
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$466
other 21% −$387
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +85.5% +67.9% 43% 43% +23.9%
≤30d 51 +15.8% +4.8% 35% 33% -9.8%
≤90d 92 +6.8% -3.3% 38% 37% -15.5%
all 92 +6.8% -3.3% 38% 37% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 37% -15.5%
10% -12.6% 37% -23.6%
15% -21.0% 37% -31.0%
20% -28.8% 37% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$106 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$1,398
Unrealized+$125
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 57
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage53d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 78¢ $265 $390 +$125 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $129 −$29 -22%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $152 −$150 -98%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $153 +$205 +134%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $198 −$198 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $153 −$27 -18%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $135 −$30 -22%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $153 +$205 +134%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 AND Seneg Jun 26 $42 +$380 +907%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $200 +$209 +104%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? AND Will Paraguay vs. Austra Jun 26 $100 +$288 +288%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $54 +$56 +104%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $49 −$5 -11%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $230 −$23 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $101 +$2 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $209 −$32 -15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $102 −$67 -66%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $110 +$102 +93%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $202 −$89 -44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $97 −$96 -99%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $34 −$2 -6%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $132 −$80 -61%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $207 −$97 -47%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $259 −$51 -20%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $144 −$142 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $254 −$152 -60%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $113 +$84 +74%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $204 −$202 -99%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $101 +$91 +90%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $102 +$116 +114%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $203 −$153 -76%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $356 −$99 -28%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $109 +$135 +124%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $100 −$61 -61%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $101 +$82 +81%
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $101 +$177 +175%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $102 +$144 +141%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $96 +$95 +99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $51 +$176 +344%
United States vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $101 +$84 +82%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 May 31 $102 −$72 -71%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $97 −$15 -16%
Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score May 31 $99 −$13 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $213 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $19 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $12 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $129 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $198 12h
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $153 14h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 35¢ $126 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $153 22h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL New Zealand 37¢ $80 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $152 23h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 45¢ $102 23h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL New Zealand 40¢ $25 23h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 52¢ $33 23h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 10¢ $31 27h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $200 33h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 AND Seneg BUY 10¢ $42 46h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 38¢ $43 47h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 42¢ $49 47h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $7 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $18 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.99 · official $387.49 (match) · 292 history records