Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x50e2…dccf other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-45%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$18
world 27% $0
sports 13% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -49.5%
≤30d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -49.5%
≤90d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -49.5%
all 4 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 50% -49.5%
10% -12.5% 50% -54.3%
15% -21.0% 50% -58.7%
20% -28.7% 50% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +113%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $11 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.90 · official $9.90 (match) · 8 history records