Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50e0…d8b8 sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%51W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$53
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$43
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 39% -12.4%
≤30d 114 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 41% -11.4%
≤90d 114 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 41% -11.4%
all 114 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 41% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -19.9%
15% -29.9% 33% -27.6%
20% -36.8% 23% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses51 / 63
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$18 +177%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$19 +63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $40 −$9 -24%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $7 −$5 -64%
Game Handicap: Noir (-1.5) vs Nande+4 (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$10 -43%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$8 -71%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $10 −$5 -46%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$5 -23%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$4 +63%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$3 +106%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $16 +$10 +60%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $11 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 −$5 -27%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $12 −$2 -14%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $5 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $43 −$8 -19%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 13 $27 −$11 -40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$14 +104%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $20 −$15 -74%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$12 +121%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$10 -69%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $34 +$18 +51%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $15 +$17 +112%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $31 +$13 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -23%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$9 -73%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $172 −$10 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 +$25 +48%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$14 +48%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $57 −$21 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $6 2h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 99¢ $16 2h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $49 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $30 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 38¢ $30 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 40¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $37 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 24¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $5 9h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 19¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $15 10h
Game Handicap: Noir (-1.5) vs Nande+4 (+1.5) SELL Noir Esports 41¢ $2 11h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 77¢ $10 12h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $7 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL TDK 50¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $13 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $13 14h
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Noir Esports 38¢ $13 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 51¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 12¢ $3 15h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 43¢ $4 15h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 39¢ $2 15h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 39¢ $5 15h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 11¢ $5 16h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 23¢ $7 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.05 · official $5.85 (match) · 266 history records