trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 23 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 39% | 0% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 0% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $200 | $200 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $150 | $150 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 14 | $280 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | May 14 | $140 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio | May 14 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Mar 02 | $420 | −$3 | -1% |
| Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 02 | $170 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 27 | $55 | $0 | -0% |
| Interstellar object confirmed aliens? | Dec 27 | $54 | $0 | +1% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Dec 18 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Nov 29 | $55 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31? | Nov 13 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 31 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi | Oct 31 | $57 | −$2 | -3% |
| Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | Jul 25 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alexander Isak win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 25 | $86 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? | May 12 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| RASMR vs. Threadguy | Feb 08 | $8 | −$1 | -17% |
| Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? | Feb 08 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024? | Jan 08 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | Jan 08 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? | Dec 21 | $1,593 | −$7 | -0% |
| Will a Republican win Indiana Presidential Election? | Dec 18 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024? | Sep 25 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? | Aug 20 | $226 | +$1 | +0% |