Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50dc…b61a sports 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,188 (+19%) realized +$10,199 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%110W / 226L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day113.0pace
Fees−$772est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$4,929
14 days+$3,156
30 days+$10,365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$10,355
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +6.5% -3.6% 42% 40% +26.5%
≤30d 336 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 30% +8.2%
≤90d 336 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 30% +8.2%
all 336 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 30% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 30% +8.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 20% -2.2%
15% -32.2% 12% -11.6%
20% -38.8% 12% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$91 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2,280
Realized+$10,199
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses110 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$772
Open positions12
Markets (closed)336 / 348
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day113.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Naho Sato 86¢ 95¢ $259 $285 +$26 (+10%)
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Chan-Yeong Oh 80¢ 72¢ $111 $101 −$10 (-9%)
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh Keisuke Saitoh 77¢ 100¢ $58 $75 +$17 (+30%)
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Riko Kikawada Ying Zhang 85¢ 100¢ $64 $75 +$11 (+17%)
ITF Bolszewo: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Amy Sucha Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 91¢ 90¢ $68 $68 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Dinard: Mia Slama vs Juliette Trunet Mia Slama 88¢ 86¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 86¢ 85¢ $64 $64 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Haskovo: Julia Stamatova vs Dalila Spiteri Dalila Spiteri 85¢ 84¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ 82¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Qiu Yu Ye 90¢ 63¢ $68 $47 −$20 (-30%)
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Hiromi Abe 78¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+28%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs NA, wed win 18¢ 1¢ $40 $1 −$38 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $60 +$15 +25%
ITF Tokyo: Azuma Visaya vs Naoya Honda Jun 17 $124 +$26 +21%
ITF Maanshan: Kai-I Wang vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 17 $67 +$8 +12%
ITF Maanshan: Seongwoo Cho vs Hiroki Moriya Jun 17 $62 +$13 +21%
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi Jun 17 $135 +$15 +11%
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji Jun 17 $252 +$50 +20%
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura Jun 17 $627 +$126 +20%
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi Jun 17 $280 +$20 +7%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 17 $410 −$410 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Kamonwan Yodpetch vs Haruna Arakawa Jun 16 $57 +$18 +32%
ITF Gyula: Jeremy Schifris vs John Sperle Jun 16 $118 +$32 +27%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $132 +$18 +14%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $196 +$29 +15%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez Jun 16 $872 +$178 +20%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $322 +$52 +16%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $287 +$13 +4%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto Jun 16 $178 +$47 +27%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $627 −$627 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $124 +$26 +21%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $756 +$144 +19%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $62 +$13 +20%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $637 −$637 -100%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $124 +$1,076 +868%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marie Mettraux Jun 15 $268 −$268 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $344 +$1,056 +307%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Jangjun Kim Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
ITF Monastir: Aspen Schuman vs Sun Min Ha Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Detonate (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 14 $108 −$108 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Haydar Cem Gokpinar vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 13 $64 +$10 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik BUY Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ $60 41m
ITF Haskovo: Julia Stamatova vs Dalila Spiteri BUY Dalila Spiteri 85¢ $64 43m
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 86¢ $65 45m
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Qiu Yu Ye 90¢ $68 51m
ITF Bolszewo: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Amy Sucha BUY Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 92¢ $52 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Amy Sucha BUY Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 89¢ $17 1h
ITF Dinard: Mia Slama vs Juliette Trunet BUY Mia Slama 88¢ $66 1h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji BUY Haruka Kaji 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji BUY Haruka Kaji 84¢ $63 2h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji BUY Haruka Kaji 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji BUY Haruka Kaji 84¢ $63 2h
ITF Maanshan: Seongwoo Cho vs Hiroki Moriya BUY Hiroki Moriya 85¢ $4 2h
ITF Maanshan: Seongwoo Cho vs Hiroki Moriya BUY Hiroki Moriya 82¢ $58 2h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Chan-Yeong Oh 81¢ $52 2h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Chan-Yeong Oh 78¢ $59 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 83¢ $63 2h
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura BUY Mutsumi Uemura 85¢ $64 2h
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 91¢ $68 2h
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 93¢ $70 2h
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 94¢ $71 2h
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 95¢ $71 2h
ITF Maanshan: Kai-I Wang vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong BUY Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong 90¢ $46 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,279.52 · official $2,279.52 (match) · 3500 history records