Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x50da…dc16 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%66W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$2
other 38% +$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 68 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 68 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 68 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses66 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage12d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $196 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 46m
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Mandatory 100¢ $50 4h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 6h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 6h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $196 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $50 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 40h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 40h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 100¢ $50 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $50 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $24 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $26 2d
Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 100¢ $50 3d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? SELL No 100¢ $50 4d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 141 history records