Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50da…7d44 other 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%19W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$7
other 23% −$6
sports 22% −$3
crypto 11% −$2
culture 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 199 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses19 / 180
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage171d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $28 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $132 +$1 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $132 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 07 $38 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 06 $82 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $236 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $34 10d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $31 11d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $4 11d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $28 24d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $28 24d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 38d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 38d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $32 67d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $32 67d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 67d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 68d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 68d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $39 68d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $39 68d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $32 68d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $32 68d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 68d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 68d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $32 68d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $32 69d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $40 69d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $40 69d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $35 69d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $35 70d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $30 70d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $30 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $36 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.56 · official $37.56 (match) · 710 history records