Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50d8…0a0e weather 1248 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$885 (-2%) realized −$1,075 · open +$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate86%1040W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day111.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$946
7 days−$956
14 days−$1,215
30 days−$1,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$93
other 2% −$410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 -3.5% -12.7% 89% 17% -13.9%
≤30d 1208 +0.2% -9.4% 86% 18% -12.6%
≤90d 1208 +0.2% -9.4% 86% 18% -12.6%
all 1208 +0.2% -9.4% 86% 18% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 18% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 15% -21.0%
15% -26.0% 7% -28.6%
20% -33.2% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,831
Realized−$1,075
Unrealized+$190
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1040 / 168
Open positions59
Markets (closed)1208 / 1248
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day111.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 1208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $490 $521 +$32 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $133 $155 +$22 (+16%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 63¢ 100¢ $81 $129 +$48 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? No 78¢ 72¢ $96 $89 −$8 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? No 66¢ 66¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 77¢ 100¢ $58 $75 +$17 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 63¢ 100¢ $45 $71 +$26 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 71¢ 100¢ $47 $66 +$19 (+41%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 70¢ 100¢ $42 $60 +$18 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 81¢ 100¢ $45 $56 +$11 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? No 73¢ 72¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? No 75¢ 81¢ $48 $52 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 75¢ 78¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 70¢ 66¢ $52 $50 −$3 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 74¢ 63¢ $48 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? No 91¢ 96¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? No 77¢ 84¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 25? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 25? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 25? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 22? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 23? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on May 23? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 18? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 26? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 25? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $55 −$42 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$28 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 48m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $133 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $22 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $64 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $43 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $24 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $23 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $7 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,830.72 · official $2,830.72 (match) · 3500 history records