Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50d4…263e
crypto · 512 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$96 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$132 · open −$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses219 / 291
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)510 / 512
History coverage12d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day247.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 510 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,131
7 days+$385
14 days+$132
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$14 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $39 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$34 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$32 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$23 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $38 +$32 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $264 +$616 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $48 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $39 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $78 +$125 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$198
sports 1% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 292 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 36% -6.6%
≤30d 510 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 39% -9.0%
≤90d 510 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 39% -9.0%
all 510 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 39% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover247.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 39% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 35% -17.7%
15% -36.3% 29% -25.7%
20% -42.6% 24% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.52 (match) · 3500 history records