Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50d0…33ee world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$10
world 33% +$3
sports 9% −$10
politics 7% −$2
tech 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 41% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 39 -4.0% -13.1% 31% 3% -9.7%
all 73 -2.7% -12.0% 22% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.4% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 57
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage269d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $276 +$2 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $92 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $133 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $60 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $199 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $204 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $205 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $110 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $168 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $206 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $92 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $68 −$9 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $23 +$12 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $14 −$3 -21%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $89 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $333 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $166 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $111 −$5 -5%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $86 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $413 −$3 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $659 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $671 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $659 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Jan 31 $1 $0 -5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 26 $39 −$5 -14%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $55 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $37 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $77 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $42 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $85 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.59 · official $81.00 (match) · 396 history records