trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $5 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 29 | $6 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | May 29 | $9 | −$1 | -7% |
| Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Tamara Korpatsch | May 28 | $1 | $0 | -29% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1PM ET | May 24 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET | May 22 | $1 | +$4 | +351% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET | May 22 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3AM ET | May 22 | $3 | +$2 | +90% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2AM ET | May 22 | $3 | +$2 | +89% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1AM ET | May 22 | $2 | +$2 | +100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET | May 21 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10AM ET | May 21 | $7 | +$1 | +13% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7AM ET | May 21 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET | May 20 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2AM ET | May 20 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET | May 20 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma | May 16 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma | May 15 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15? | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16? | May 14 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 14? | May 14 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | May 12 | $1 | $0 | -11% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 20 | -16.0% | -24.0% | 25% | 25% | -15.2% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -23.1% | -30.4% | 22% | 22% | -18.2% |
| all | 23 | -23.1% | -30.4% | 22% | 22% | -18.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.4% | 22% | -18.2% |
| 10% | -37.1% | 17% | -26.1% |
| 15% | -43.2% | 17% | -33.2% |
| 20% | -48.7% | 17% | -39.8% |