Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x50ca…6845 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$216 (+4%) realized +$58 · open +$158
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$687per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days−$199
14 days−$398
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% +$315
other 2% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -34.9% -41.1% 0% 0% -41.1%
≤30d 3 -34.2% -40.5% 33% 33% -4.7%
≤90d 6 -27.0% -34.0% 50% 50% -8.3%
all 6 -27.0% -34.0% 50% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 50% -8.3%
10% -40.3% 33% -17.1%
15% -46.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -51.3% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$173 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$2,958
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage66d
Avg bet$687
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1,700 $1,827 +$127 (+7%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,100 $1,132 +$32 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $571 −$199 -35%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $200 −$199 -99%
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 24 $1,679 +$529 +32%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $123 −$120 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $103 +$24 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $212 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 20¢ $160 9d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 11d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 11d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $504 12d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,008 12d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 96¢ $1,002 15d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 23d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 81¢ $86 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $62 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 67¢ $65 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 24d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 24d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 36d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $103 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,958.42 · official $2,958.42 (match) · 39 history records