trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -34.9% | -41.1% | 0% | 0% | -41.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -34.2% | -40.5% | 33% | 33% | -4.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -27.0% | -34.0% | 50% | 50% | -8.3% |
| all | 6 | -27.0% | -34.0% | 50% | 50% | -8.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.0% | 50% | -8.3% |
| 10% | -40.3% | 33% | -17.1% |
| 15% | -46.1% | 0% | -25.1% |
| 20% | -51.3% | 0% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Yes | 81¢ | 88¢ | $1,700 | $1,827 | +$127 (+7%) |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1,100 | $1,132 | +$32 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 17 | $571 | −$199 | -35% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 07 | $200 | −$199 | -99% |
| Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? | May 24 | $1,679 | +$529 | +32% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | May 12 | $123 | −$120 | -97% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | May 10 | $10 | +$2 | +18% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | May 10 | $103 | +$24 | +23% |