Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50c8…f649 crypto 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$21 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate75%133W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days−$230
14 days−$230
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$31
weather 35% −$28
other 12% −$97
sports 5% +$68
world 4% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -10.7% -19.2% 78% 13% -27.0%
≤30d 139 -10.7% -19.2% 78% 13% -27.0%
≤90d 142 -10.6% -19.1% 76% 13% -26.9%
all 178 -7.2% -16.0% 75% 18% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 18% -13.8%
10% -24.1% 10% -22.0%
15% -31.4% 7% -29.6%
20% -38.1% 6% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$886
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses133 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions82
Markets (closed)178 / 260
History coverage119d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 82 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 85¢ 81¢ $64 $61 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 91¢ 87¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 67¢ 66¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 90¢ 80¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 69¢ 66¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? No 71¢ 66¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 86¢ 88¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? No 91¢ 92¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? No 64¢ 64¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 86¢ 82¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? No 62¢ 58¢ $22 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? No 68¢ 66¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? No 82¢ 86¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? No 68¢ 64¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? No 84¢ 80¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 67¢ 62¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 72¢ 89¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? No 76¢ 72¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? No 95¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 94¢ 93¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? No 87¢ 88¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 75¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $3 3m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY No 68¢ $3 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $886.44 · official $885.68 (match) · 872 history records