Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x50c7…55aa crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,654 (-15%) realized −$2,656 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%36W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$2,659
crypto 38% +$7
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 37 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 0% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -26.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -33.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -39.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2,660 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$2,553
Realized−$2,656
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses36 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage615d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,218 $1,219 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $711 $713 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $622 $622 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $878 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,672 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Feb 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? Jun 05 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $502 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 30 $503 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,028 −$2,660 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $622 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $712 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,218 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $878 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,672 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 103d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $66 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 103d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $58 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $21 118d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $71 118d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 118d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $83 269d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 269d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 269d
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $3 269d
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $5 269d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $3 269d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $4 269d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 269d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 269d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se BUY No 100¢ $4 269d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 269d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 269d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 269d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 269d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 269d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,553.12 · official $2,553.12 (match) · 84 history records