Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x50c2…d9ea crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+10%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$915
other 13% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.5% -6.3% 45% 42% +105.5%
≤30d 31 +3.5% -6.3% 45% 42% +105.5%
≤90d 31 +3.5% -6.3% 45% 42% +105.5%
all 31 +3.5% -6.3% 45% 42% +105.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 42% +105.5%
10% -15.3% 32% +85.8%
15% -23.5% 19% +67.9%
20% -31.0% 13% +51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +127% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +127% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$9 · ×8.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.71 per $1 lost it wins $6.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $112 +$944 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $86 +$25 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $63 +$55 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $71 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +48%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $1 $0 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $112 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $71 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records