Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x50c0…6eba other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$263 (+36%) realized +$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$123
sports 27% +$107
crypto 18% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +43.3% +29.7% 100% 100% +26.8%
≤30d 4 +43.3% +29.7% 100% 100% +26.8%
≤90d 4 +43.3% +29.7% 100% 100% +26.8%
all 4 +43.3% +29.7% 100% 100% +26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.7% 100% +26.8%
10% +17.3% 100% +14.7%
15% +5.9% 75% +3.6%
20% -4.4% 25% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $304 +$80 +26%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $201 +$107 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $135 +$66 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $93 +$42 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $385 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $304 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $307 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $201 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $201 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $135 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $135 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $93 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records