Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x50c0…295b crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$104 (+13%) realized +$110 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$97
other 25% −$3
tech 7% $0
politics 2% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.9% +7.6% 83% 50% +3.5%
≤30d 7 +16.4% +5.3% 86% 43% +3.5%
≤90d 7 +16.4% +5.3% 86% 43% +3.5%
all 7 +16.4% +5.3% 86% 43% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 43% +3.5%
10% -4.7% 43% -6.4%
15% -13.9% 29% -15.5%
20% -22.4% 0% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$0 · ×64.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×385.13 per $1 lost it wins $385.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage12d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $155 +$67 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $148 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $148 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $145 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $64 +$20 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.05 · official $132.05 (match) · 23 history records