Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50bf…b222 crypto 1567 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,566 (-3%) realized −$1,566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%839W / 729L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$88
14 days−$359
30 days−$968
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,840
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -0.9% -10.4% 64% 44% -5.1%
≤30d 709 -10.3% -18.8% 46% 37% -19.3%
≤90d 1568 -7.0% -15.8% 54% 43% -14.2%
all 1568 -7.0% -15.8% 54% 43% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 43% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 32% -22.4%
15% -31.2% 25% -29.9%
20% -38.0% 20% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses839 / 729
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1568 / 1567
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1568 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 18 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$132 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $114 +$54 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $63 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $126 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $28 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records