Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50bc…555a crypto 851 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate80%679W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -4.0% -13.1% 83% 82% -12.2%
≤30d 808 -5.8% -14.8% 80% 76% -13.4%
≤90d 851 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 75% -12.5%
all 851 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 75% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 75% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 12% -20.9%
15% -29.6% 4% -28.5%
20% -36.5% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses679 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)851 / 851
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 851 Trades
no open positions (169 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1712 history records