Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50b9…4467 crypto 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,662 (-4%) realized −$2,905 · open +$243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%97W / 153L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$316est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,173
7 days−$4,562
14 days−$2,755
30 days−$7,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$6,458
crypto 25% −$745
sports 23% +$3,932
other 15% +$1,608
politics 1% −$129
economics 1% −$665
tech 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +32.4% +19.8% 39% 39% -26.5%
≤30d 143 -19.2% -26.9% 29% 29% -25.6%
≤90d 250 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 36% -13.6%
all 250 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 36% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 36% -13.6%
10% -18.8% 34% -21.9%
15% -26.7% 32% -29.4%
20% -33.8% 31% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$186 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$3,407
Realized−$2,905
Unrealized+$243
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses97 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$316
Open positions11
Markets (closed)250 / 262
History coverage59d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 52¢ $2,351 $2,658 +$306 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10¢ 12¢ $204 $255 +$51 (+25%)
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? No 43¢ 32¢ $208 $159 −$49 (-24%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $172 $157 −$15 (-9%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $116 $85 −$30 (-26%)
Will Markéta Vondroušová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-29%)
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+33%)
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-56%)
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $997 +$858 +86%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $1,137 −$1,117 -98%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $505 −$25 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $392 +$408 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $126 −$120 -95%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $409 −$10 -2%
Set 2 Winner: Pino vs Estevez Jun 19 $400 −$400 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $406 +$378 +93%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $454 +$746 +164%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $698 +$780 +112%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $246 −$245 -100%
Asuncion 2 (Doubles): Ribeiro/Zeballos vs Casanova/Taverna Jun 18 $576 +$623 +108%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $244 +$866 +354%
Set 2 Winner: Medjedovic vs Humbert Jun 18 $583 −$581 -100%
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Gadamauri (+1.5) Jun 18 $247 −$247 -100%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) Jun 18 $214 −$214 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $154 +$233 +152%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $113 −$110 -98%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $509 +$657 +129%
Set Handicap: Ruggeri (-1.5) vs Sherif (+1.5) Jun 18 $17 +$2 +13%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $486 −$481 -99%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $161 −$161 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $216 −$213 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $304 +$205 +67%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $153 +$416 +272%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $113 −$110 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 18 $8 +$2 +21%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $254 +$301 +119%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 −$140 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $567 +$567 +100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $584 +$613 +105%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Jun 15 $371 −$151 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4,605 +$1,323 +29%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$382 +249%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8,690 −$5,405 -62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $312 +$742 +238%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $299 −$292 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $308 −$303 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $207 −$204 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $339 +$356 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $997 9h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 26¢ $225 11h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 40¢ $407 11h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 20¢ $25 12h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 48¢ $505 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,406.62 · official $3,406.62 (match) · 966 history records