Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50b6…fbbf politics 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$10
culture 16% −$3
other 15% −$3
world 10% −$1
sports 7% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 30 -0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 30 -0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$914) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage84d
Avg bet$410
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election May 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $965 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $894 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $909 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? Apr 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Human moon landing in 2026? Apr 05 $39 −$1 -1%
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Mar 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,148 3m
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 12m
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,131 23m
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 31m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 39m
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 49m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,110 58m
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $794 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $251 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 18h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? SELL No 99¢ $31 18h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 19h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 19h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,146 19h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 19h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,138 19h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $31 19h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $820 20h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $11 20h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $218 20h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 20h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 28d
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election SELL No 100¢ $38 28d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 28d
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 28d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.11 · official $42.11 (match) · 95 history records