Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
50 0x50b6…9272 crypto 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,167 (+4%) realized +$16,498 · open +$2,669
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate84%86W / 16L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$4,013per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68,267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$44,906
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 76% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 102 +30.3% +17.8% 84% 22% +0.2%
all 102 +30.3% +17.8% 84% 22% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.8% 22% +0.2%
10% +6.6% 19% -9.4%
15% ← realistic here -3.7% 18% -18.1%
20% -13.2% 12% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$5,560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$523 vs −$173 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.3 per $1 lost it wins $16.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$68,267
Realized+$16,498
Unrealized+$2,669
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses86 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions33
Markets (closed)102 / 135
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$4,013
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $4,449 $4,830 +$381 (+9%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,915 $3,988 +$73 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $3,730 $3,982 +$252 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $3,602 $3,958 +$356 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,864 $3,954 +$90 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $3,496 $3,922 +$426 (+12%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $3,802 $3,916 +$114 (+3%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $3,563 $3,806 +$242 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $3,525 $3,636 +$111 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 91¢ 95¢ $3,385 $3,534 +$149 (+4%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 92¢ 88¢ $3,680 $3,520 −$160 (-4%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 92¢ 90¢ $3,380 $3,287 −$94 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 91¢ 94¢ $3,129 $3,253 +$124 (+4%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 90¢ 93¢ $3,058 $3,166 +$108 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $2,516 $2,769 +$252 (+10%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $2,374 $2,506 +$132 (+6%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,439 $2,440 +$1 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,948 $1,990 +$42 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,433 $1,464 +$31 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $1,140 $1,240 +$100 (+9%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 87¢ 99¢ $810 $920 +$110 (+14%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $747 $759 +$13 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 88¢ 86¢ $711 $695 −$16 (-2%)
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $269 $276 +$8 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $190 $197 +$7 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 16 $14,098 +$530 +4%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Jun 15 $11,112 −$1,280 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 10 $4,400 −$113 -3%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $850 +$27 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $950 +$50 +5%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $3,863 +$137 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $977 +$23 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $7,853 −$8 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 02 $6,255 −$186 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $3,128 +$271 +9%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $82 −$82 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $3,718 +$282 +8%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $3,866 +$134 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $13,223 +$79 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 02 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $1,220 +$30 +2%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $974 +$26 +3%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $3,840 +$160 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $4,069 +$167 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $3,845 +$155 +4%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $1,740 +$76 +4%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $2,903 −$59 -2%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $169 +$6 +3%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $3,866 +$134 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $2,311 +$91 +4%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $1,711 +$47 +3%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $22,658 +$418 +2%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 02 $9,029 +$440 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $8,034 +$162 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 02 $962 +$38 +4%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 29 $916 −$100 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 24 $4,039 −$39 -1%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 02 $2,843 +$157 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 02 $5,578 +$176 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 02 $940 +$60 +6%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $2,879 +$122 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 02 $7,332 +$309 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 02 $970 +$30 +3%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April? May 02 $6,783 +$344 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 02 $2,890 +$110 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $4,984 +$15 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 02 $1,080 +$76 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 02 $3,120 −$97 -3%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 02 $2,823 +$73 +3%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 02 $975 +$25 +3%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 02 $1,350 +$37 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 02 $4,244 +$129 +3%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 02 $3,914 −$31 -1%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? May 02 $6,257 +$210 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $104 27m
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 92¢ $1,356 28m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $0 29m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $57 29m
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 92¢ $1,840 29m
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,914 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 75¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 75¢ $122 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 69¢ $4 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 67¢ $3 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $11 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 92¢ $6 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 92¢ $6 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 91¢ $40 7h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 89¢ $21 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 9h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 90¢ $5 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 81¢ $5 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 80¢ $44 11h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 79¢ $0 12h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 79¢ $111 12h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $0 12h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $52 12h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $4 12h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY No 97¢ $375 14h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY No 97¢ $253 14h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 92¢ $467 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,267.31 · official $68,267.31 (match) · 3500 history records