Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50b3…54dc
crypto · 233 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$45 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses108 / 121
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)229 / 233
History coverage148d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 229 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 77¢ 74¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Team WE 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Playoffs Geek Fam ID 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 26? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down on January 27? Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$21 +70%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $1 +$7 +710%
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5) Feb 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 07 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 05 $1 $0 +43%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 04 $1 $0 +15%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 03 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 03 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 02 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 02 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 02 $1 $0 +34%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 01 $1 +$1 +59%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $4 +$6 +144%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 01 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$46
sports 26% $0
other 16% −$8
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 45h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 47h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Team Liquid ID 34¢ $2 47h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Team Liquid ID 41¢ $2 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl BUY Geek Fam ID 20¢ $1 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY 1¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili SELL ONIC PH 0¢ $0 14d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili BUY ONIC PH 62¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 33d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -43.7% -49.0% 29% 29% -22.6%
≤30d 17 -32.2% -38.7% 35% 35% -5.7%
≤90d 17 -32.2% -38.7% 35% 35% -5.7%
all 229 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 46% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 46% -15.2%
10% -20.0% 44% -23.3%
15% -27.7% 41% -30.7%
20% -34.8% 38% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.42 · official $77.42 (match) · 600 history records