Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x50b2…f555 crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$330 (-7%) realized −$330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%109W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$359
culture 1% $0
other 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -33.7% -40.1% 0% 0% -40.1%
≤30d 1 -33.7% -40.1% 0% 0% -40.1%
≤90d 1 -33.7% -40.1% 0% 0% -40.1%
all 194 +2.0% -7.7% 56% 46% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 46% -16.3%
10% -16.6% 42% -24.3%
15% -24.6% 40% -31.6%
20% -32.0% 36% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses109 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage124d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 17 $503 −$495 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 17 $180 −$177 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 17 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Feb 17 $1 +$5 +452%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 16 $35 +$30 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 16 $16 +$17 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 16 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 16 $35 +$44 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 16 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 16 $35 +$28 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 16 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 15 $130 +$112 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 15 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $340 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $163 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $180 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $80 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $35 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $8 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $65 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $35 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 592 history records