Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50b1…0793 weather 1609 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,559 (+9%) realized +$3,603 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%1467W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day57.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$63
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -4.0% -13.1% 80% 30% -13.5%
≤30d 1261 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 14% -9.7%
≤90d 1567 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 12% -9.6%
all 1567 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 12% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized+$3,603
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1467 / 100
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1567 / 1609
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 1567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 61¢ 100¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? No 64¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 60¢ 99¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? No 65¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 66¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 64¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? No 64¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? No 81¢ 98¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? No 63¢ 95¢ $13 $19 +$7 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? No 58¢ 84¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 57¢ 85¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? No 87¢ 84¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? No 73¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? No 64¢ 64¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? No 63¢ 62¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? No 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? No 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? No 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? No 56¢ 57¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? No 57¢ 57¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? No 56¢ 55¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? No 54¢ 55¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? No 58¢ 53¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? No 53¢ 54¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? No 63¢ 52¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +103%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $11 +$9 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$9 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$13 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$6 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$9 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$6 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$14 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$6 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$6 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 29? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 27? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 53¢ $8 8m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 52¢ $7 14m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 46¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 46¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 46¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 46¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $4 34m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 46¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 52¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 46¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $11 41m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $9 43m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $18 48m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.48 · official $454.49 (match) · 3500 history records