Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x50b1…043e crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+10%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 50% -4.5%
all 6 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 50% -4.5%
10% -16.6% 33% -13.6%
15% -24.7% 17% -22.0%
20% -32.1% 17% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records