Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x50b0…ccc3 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,143 (+9%) realized +$3,141 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%71W / 92L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$157
14 days+$1,102
30 days+$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$7,409
sports 45% −$4,401
crypto 0% −$100
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 47% -3.3%
≤30d 66 -12.3% -20.7% 41% 41% -6.4%
≤90d 142 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 35% -11.2%
all 163 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 44% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 44% -1.7%
10% -18.6% 43% -11.1%
15% -26.5% 40% -19.7%
20% -33.7% 31% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$141 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$3,141
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses71 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage237d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 40¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $302 +$98 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $15 +$37 +240%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$166 +325%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $336 −$333 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$61 +238%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$144 +71%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,019 +$905 +45%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $153 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 19h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $51 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 43h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co BUY 11¢ $15 2d
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $101 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 60¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $15 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $336 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.88 · official $151.88 (match) · 293 history records