Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:36:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50ac…4854 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$26
politics 22% −$2
world 15% −$1
culture 14% −$1
sports 4% +$4
crypto 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.8% -5.2% 40% 20% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -10.9% -19.4% 29% 14% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 9% -10.3%
all 42 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage377d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 64¢ 64¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $875 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $855 −$1 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%? May 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Apr 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 19? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18? Feb 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026 Jan 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 12-18? Jan 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in November? Jan 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 08 $9 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 8–14? Oct 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Oct 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Aug 16 $8 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $432 $0 -0%
Will Sundowns FC win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $265 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? Jun 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Harry Kane win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $260 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 06 $276 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $874 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $875 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $831 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $815 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $855 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $93 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $19 45h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $26 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Sorana Cirstea 80¢ $20 21d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 29d
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem SELL No 100¢ $50 55d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 55d
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem BUY No 100¢ $24 55d
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem BUY No 100¢ $26 55d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 55d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $36 65d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $23 65d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $13 65d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 81d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 93d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 93d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 133d
Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 146d
Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026 SELL No 100¢ $37 146d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $16 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.56 · official $110.56 (match) · 124 history records