trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | -44.9% | -50.2% | 17% | 17% | -65.9% |
| all | 12 | -68.9% | -71.8% | 8% | 8% | -72.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -71.8% | 8% | -72.0% |
| 10% | -74.5% | 8% | -74.6% |
| 15% | -77.0% | 8% | -77.1% |
| 20% | -79.2% | 8% | -79.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $3,084 | $103 | −$2,981 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 28 | $851 | −$824 | -97% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? | May 27 | $3,978 | −$1,500 | -38% |
| Will Solana dip to $70 in May? | May 24 | $167 | −$109 | -65% |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in May? | May 24 | $15 | −$8 | -56% |
| Will Solana reach $100 in May? | May 24 | $196 | −$135 | -69% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in May? | May 24 | $486 | +$589 | +121% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 23 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? | Mar 02 | $380 | −$369 | -97% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Thursday? | Feb 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? | Feb 21 | $89 | −$89 | -100% |
| Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | Feb 20 | $458 | −$458 | -100% |
| Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? | Nov 10 | $1,142 | −$684 | -60% |