Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x50a9…dcf5
weather · 220 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$79 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$68 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$191
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses146 / 47
Open positions27
Markets (closed)193 / 220
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 27 History 193 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$24
14 days+$84
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 71¢ 90¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? No 60¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? No 69¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 84¢ 88¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 85¢ 90¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? No 46¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? No 62¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? No 63¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? No 68¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 67¢ 89¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 79¢ 96¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 78¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? No 66¢ 69¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 59¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? No 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 69¢ 67¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? No 56¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? No 72¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 74¢ 64¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 73¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? No 62¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 73¢ 61¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? No 68¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$8 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$10 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$13 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$5 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 43¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 49¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 57¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 58¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +6.1% -4.0% 75% 75% -6.7%
≤30d 193 +6.6% -3.6% 76% 75% -5.1%
≤90d 193 +6.6% -3.6% 76% 75% -5.1%
all 193 +6.6% -3.6% 76% 75% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 75% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 62% -14.2%
15% -21.2% 42% -22.5%
20% -28.9% 21% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.74 · official $190.74 (match) · 451 history records