Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x50a8…98ed other 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,383 (+15%) realized +$5,398 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%90W / 105L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$261
14 days+$630
30 days+$1,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$4,586
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 29% -4.7%
≤30d 74 -7.5% -16.3% 38% 31% -3.3%
≤90d 195 +4.1% -5.8% 46% 34% +2.0%
all 195 +4.1% -5.8% 46% 34% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 34% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 23% -7.8%
15% -23.0% 21% -16.7%
20% -30.6% 16% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$50 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$5,398
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses90 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)195 / 200
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$184
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $71 $117 +$46 (+65%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $75 $56 −$19 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $63 $30 −$34 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $143 −$73 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $122 −$10 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $62 −$19 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $92 −$81 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $562 +$138 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $364 +$124 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $114 −$101 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$48 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $346 +$224 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $1,102 +$508 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $157 −$108 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $173 +$155 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$18 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $109 −$44 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $249 −$70 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $111 −$103 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$25 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $87 −$66 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $180 +$33 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $341 −$8 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $125 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $99 −$97 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $272 +$25 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $101 −$97 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $248 +$62 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $90 −$86 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $306 −$79 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $123 −$107 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $85 −$57 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $221 +$100 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $481 +$216 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $101 −$62 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $336 +$453 +135%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $340 +$44 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $102 −$81 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $104 −$95 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $120 −$116 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $492 +$35 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $183 −$10 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $44 −$41 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $42 +$8 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $131 −$125 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $108 −$102 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $64 +$150 +234%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $258 −$15 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $78 +$44 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $24 +$10 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $297 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $126 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $63 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.37 · official $254.60 (match) · 3500 history records