trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 24¢ | $10 | $4 | −$6 (-58%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+13%) |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 82¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$12 | +114% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 12 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $30 | +$13 | +41% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-45 House seat? | Apr 15 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challen | Apr 15 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Raptors vs. Celtics | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Wild vs. Red Wings | Apr 06 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Suns vs. Bulls | Apr 06 | $2 | $0 | +21% |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-05? | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexandre | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-05? | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League | Apr 06 | $1 | $0 | +16% |
| Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-05? | Apr 05 | $1 | +$1 | +64% |
| Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega | Apr 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Barletta: Michele Ribecai vs Lukas Neumayer | Apr 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will FC Volendam win on 2026-04-05? | Apr 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Miomir Kecmanovic | Apr 05 | $1 | +$1 | +93% |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Cris | Apr 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-04-05? | Apr 05 | $1 | +$1 | +78% |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Oceane Dod | Apr 05 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 05 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -8.8% | -17.5% | 60% | 40% | -4.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -8.8% | -17.5% | 60% | 40% | -4.8% |
| ≤90d | 25 | -28.7% | -35.5% | 48% | 32% | -11.6% |
| all | 25 | -28.7% | -35.5% | 48% | 32% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.5% | 32% | -11.6% |
| 10% | -41.7% | 24% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -47.3% | 20% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -52.5% | 16% | -34.9% |