Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a8…afe0 other 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 22% −$16
culture 8% −$5
economics 7% −$4
crypto 6% −$5
politics 6% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage131d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $364 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $255 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $143 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $288 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $525 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $632 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $411 +$2 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $329 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $245 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $390 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $12 2h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 4h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 8h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 14h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 15h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 19h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 20h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 21h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $29 23h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $29 25h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 26h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 27h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 30h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 41h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 41h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 42h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 45h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 46h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.83 · official $47.83 (match) · 1383 history records