Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a8…143f sports 354 markets active 8h ago coverage 273d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 273d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,295 (+0%) realized +$6,168 · open +$127
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%321W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$4,676per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$53,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 273d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$156
crypto 44% +$9,799
sports 10% +$252
culture 0% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 346 +3.1% -6.7% 93% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 3% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 2% -17.7%
15% -23.8% 2% -25.7%
20% -31.3% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$63 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.05 per $1 lost it wins $7.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$53,400
Realized+$6,168
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses321 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)346 / 354
History coverage273d ⚠
Avg bet$4,676
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35,467 $35,538 +$71 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $17,707 $17,760 +$53 (+0%)
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 97¢ 99¢ $99 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toledo Rockets vs. Akron Zips: O/U 153.5 Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $127 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $137 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $480 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $67 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $90 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $96 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $132 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $170 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 12 $1,832 +$2 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $260 +$3 +1%
Superform FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 07 $208 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Mar 07 $262 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Feb 11 $29,252 +$29 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 10? Feb 11 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on February 10? Feb 11 $1,772 +$5 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 11 $4,360 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 10? Feb 10 $878 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Feb 10 $3,900 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $9 +$7 +74%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 10 $516 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 10 $516 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $16,120 +$16 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 09 $135 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 09 $144 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 09 $655 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 09 $955 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 February 2-8? Feb 09 $631 +$17 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 09 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 09 $31 −$20 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 08 $178 −$176 -99%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on February 7? Feb 08 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on February 6? Feb 07 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on February 6? Feb 07 $380 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Feb 07 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $160 on February 6? Feb 07 $2,167 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on February 6? Feb 07 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Feb 07 $17,760 +$18 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 February 2-8? Feb 06 $4,566 +$5 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in February? Feb 06 $6,164 +$6 +0%
Kraken vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Feb 06 $2 +$2 +92%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 217.5 Feb 06 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY 15¢ $2 7h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 53¢ $2 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 44¢ $2 7h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17,707 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17,724 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17,742 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY $1 2d
Toledo Rockets vs. Akron Zips: O/U 153.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 106d
FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $69 106d
FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 106d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $40 106d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $56 106d
Sharks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $12 106d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $94 106d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $117 106d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $330 106d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $6 106d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $97 106d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 106d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 108d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $85 108d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 108d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $91 108d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 108d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $15 108d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 108d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 108d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $41 108d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,399.80 · official $53,405.00 (match) · 3500 history records