Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a8…24ff sports 389 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%127W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$42
14 days−$40
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$64
world 2% −$3
other 1% +$3
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -14.9% -23.0% 32% 28% -18.7%
≤30d 386 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 28% -14.4%
≤90d 386 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 28% -14.4%
all 386 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 28% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 28% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 25% -22.6%
15% -28.5% 22% -30.0%
20% -35.5% 19% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses127 / 259
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)386 / 389
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? No 56¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+71%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 64¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $3 −$1 -42%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 26 $3 $0 -8%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 26 $3 $0 -6%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 26 $3 $0 -9%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 26 $3 $0 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $3 $0 -4%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $3 $0 -6%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $3 $0 -5%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $4 +$1 +13%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $6 +$6 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $3 +$4 +122%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $7 −$4 -61%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $3 $0 -12%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3 $0 -5%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $4 +$1 +13%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $3 −$2 -76%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) Jun 25 $3 $0 -6%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $4 $0 +5%
Olympic Dcheira vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 $0 -13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $3 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $3 $0 -5%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $3 $0 -8%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 $0 -3%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $4 $0 -4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $4 +$1 +27%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $3 +$3 +89%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 +$3 +85%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 −$2 -60%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 −$1 -39%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $3 −$1 -44%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $2 $0 -11%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 $0 -6%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $4 $0 -11%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2 $0 -8%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $6 +$1 +16%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $4 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Norway 29¢ $2 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 48¢ $3 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs 31¢ $3 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 32¢ $3 4h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? SELL No 90¢ $4 5h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 51¢ $3 5h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $3 5h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $1 5h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 26¢ $3 5h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 27¢ $3 5h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 57¢ $3 5h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 58¢ $3 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 58¢ $3 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 7h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 49¢ $3 7h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 7h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $2 7h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 54¢ $3 8h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 8h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 15h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 7¢ $4 15h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 17h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 17h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 9¢ $4 19h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 19h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 20h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.11 · official $4.16 (match) · 915 history records