Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

50 0x50a7…6f9c other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$562 (+3%) realized +$580 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$676per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$2,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,006

7 days+$453

14 days+$451

30 days+$451

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-25.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-12.8%	-21.1%	58%	53%	-5.2%
≤30d	20	-17.1%	-25.0%	55%	50%	-5.3%
≤90d	20	-17.1%	-25.0%	55%	50%	-5.3%
all	20	-17.1%	-25.0%	55%	50%	-5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.0%	50%	-5.3%
10%	-32.2%	30%	-14.3%
15%	-38.7%	30%	-22.6%
20%	-44.7%	20%	-30.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$752) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -30% → late -4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$226 vs −$226 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$2,482

Realized+$580

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions4

Markets (closed)20 / 24

History coverage9d

Avg bet$676

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$1,000	$994	−$6 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$800	$794	−$6 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	73¢	72¢	$500	$497	−$3 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$200	$197	−$3 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$2,020	+$965	+48%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$603	−$600	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$2,348	+$334	+14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$404	−$150	-37%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$2,406	+$68	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$2,039	+$388	+19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$759	−$752	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$681	+$79	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$467	+$213	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$303	+$158	+52%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$40	−$34	-84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$358	−$15	-4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$316	+$42	+13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$192	+$124	+65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$124	+$68	+55%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$80	+$45	+57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$268	−$183	-68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$300	−$298	-99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$1,005	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	73¢	$504	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$807	1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$204	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2,020	11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$603	11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	99¢	$2,682	12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$1,998	17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$349	21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	42¢	$254	25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$404	28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$2,475	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$2,406	35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	81¢	$2,427	35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2,039	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$759	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$760	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$681	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$680	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$467	3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	4¢	$6	3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$40	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$303	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	57¢	$343	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$358	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$316	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$192	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$192	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$124	4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,481.60 · official $2,481.71 (match) · 42 history records