Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a3…c206 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-31%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$33
sports 23% −$12
other 13% −$27
politics 11% −$22
tech 8% +$8
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -33.3% -39.6% 35% 29% -30.7%
≤30d 17 -33.3% -39.6% 35% 29% -30.7%
≤90d 17 -33.3% -39.6% 35% 29% -30.7%
all 49 -50.2% -55.0% 27% 18% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.0% 18% -43.4%
10% -59.3% 16% -48.8%
15% -63.2% 10% -53.7%
20% -66.8% 6% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage383d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $54 −$12 -22%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28? Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11 AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10 AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9 AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8 AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7 AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6 AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Trump deploys Marines to LA protests by Friday? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Trump x Elon talk by Monday? Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -89%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m openi Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 31 $12 +$14 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down – May 30 (5 AM ET Candle) May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down – May 30 (4 AM ET Candle) May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down – May 30 (3 AM ET Candle) May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down – May 30 (2 AM ET Candle) May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records