Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x50a3…3ef3 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% $0
politics 23% $0
tech 8% $0
world 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage91d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $97 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 14h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 13d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $95 19d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 20d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $96 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $96 31d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 34d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $96 34d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 36d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 36d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 61d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 62d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $97 64d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $97 65d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $97 70d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $97 71d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $97 73d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $97 74d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 79d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 80d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 85d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 86d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 86d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 90d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records