Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x50a2…3509 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,295 (-8%) realized −$1,295 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$366
7 days−$657
14 days−$881
30 days−$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,480
sports 1% −$25
economics 0% −$9
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -35.4% -41.5% 25% 25% -60.3%
≤30d 6 -56.9% -61.0% 17% 17% -64.4%
≤90d 6 -56.9% -61.0% 17% 17% -64.4%
all 42 -30.9% -37.5% 33% 33% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 33% -26.0%
10% -43.5% 24% -33.0%
15% -48.9% 24% -39.5%
20% -53.9% 21% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$276 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage166d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $515 −$489 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $199 +$315 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $202 −$192 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $352 −$203 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11AM ET Feb 16 $349 −$349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10AM ET Feb 16 $1,327 −$240 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 16 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9AM ET Feb 16 $870 +$30 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 01 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4PM ET Feb 01 $100 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3PM ET Feb 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5PM ET Jan 31 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 31 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3PM ET Jan 29 $596 −$396 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 29 $194 −$192 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 29 $321 −$207 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 26 $629 −$526 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 26 $164 +$311 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 26 $400 −$299 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 5AM ET Jan 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4AM ET Jan 26 $880 −$655 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3AM ET Jan 26 $300 +$460 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11AM ET Jan 21 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10AM ET Jan 21 $562 −$562 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9AM ET Jan 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8AM ET Jan 21 $1,000 +$1,761 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3AM ET Jan 21 $700 +$562 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2AM ET Jan 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 21 $841 +$952 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 21 $200 +$254 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 21 $1,440 +$222 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 20 $290 +$233 +80%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jan 19 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Jan 19 $25 +$41 +163%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 19 $42 −$17 -40%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $28 −$9 -31%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $514 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $97 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $107 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $22 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $124 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $105 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $100 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $100 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $349 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $100 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $100 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records