Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
50 0x50a0…18ff sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$74 (+18%) realized +$93 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +9.8%
≤30d 8 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +9.8%
≤90d 8 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +9.8%
all 8 +26.9% +14.8% 50% 50% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 50% +9.8%
10% +3.8% 50% -0.7%
15% -6.2% 38% -10.3%
20% -15.4% 38% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$13 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group A SHISHKA 53¢ 32¢ $49 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Misa Esports 54¢ 56¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 26 $92 +$50 +54%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 26 $3 +$12 +376%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $106 +$28 +26%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $52 +$36 +68%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $28 −$3 -10%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 21 $21 −$21 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifi BUY SHISHKA 53¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar SELL Donstu Esports 100¢ $142 15h
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Donstu Esports 64¢ $83 39h
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Donstu Esports 56¢ $1 39h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 21¢ $3 40h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 54¢ $19 40h
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Donstu Esports 68¢ $8 40h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 77¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 76¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 75¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 75¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL ENJOY 74¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY ENJOY 74¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 44¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 58¢ $27 5d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 59¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner SELL Team Falcons 50¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $28 5d
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $21 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.36 · official $54.30 · 23 history records