Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x509d…0799 other 42 markets active 11h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$288 (-12%) realized +$62 · open −$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$25
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$46
other 25% −$141
politics 19% −$38
tech 18% −$32
crypto 6% −$78
finance 2% +$30
economics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.9% -30.2% 50% 50% -28.4%
≤30d 13 -47.3% -52.3% 31% 15% -33.1%
≤90d 19 -32.6% -39.0% 37% 26% -27.0%
all 30 -19.0% -26.7% 43% 33% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 33% -7.8%
10% -33.7% 30% -16.6%
15% -40.1% 30% -24.7%
20% -46.0% 20% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$23 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions12
Markets (closed)30 / 42
History coverage118d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $109 $116 +$6 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 37¢ 13¢ $200 $70 −$130 (-65%)
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? No 28¢ 24¢ $42 $36 −$7 (-16%)
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 71¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will Scotland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-77%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? Yes 27¢ 6¢ $40 $8 −$32 (-79%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-98%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Yes 46¢ 1¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 42¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 28¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $106 +$57 +54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $106 −$100 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $50 +$22 +45%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $100 −$54 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $100 −$51 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 22 $150 +$10 +6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 22 $5 −$4 -79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 22 $50 −$22 -45%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 06 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? May 06 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 06 $53 −$18 -34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $50 +$30 +60%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 28 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 25 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 19 $150 −$15 -10%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $200 +$12 +6%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$7 +35%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$12 +59%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $70 +$30 +44%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $80 +$206 +257%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by March 31? Feb 21 $10 +$6 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 74¢ $38 10h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 27¢ $14 10h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 72¢ $37 15h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 28¢ $14 15h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 29¢ $15 19h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 19h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $25 3d
Will Scotland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $17 3d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $25 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $53 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 62¢ $53 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $53 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 61¢ $53 5d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 3¢ $5 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $46 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $49 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $100 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 94¢ $150 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 69¢ $50 42d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $112 43d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $31 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 43d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 44d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.15 · official $310.20 · 98 history records