Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x509b…1224 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+17%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 38L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$22
sports 24% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 59 -2.6% -11.9% 36% 36% +8.6%
all 59 -2.6% -11.9% 36% 36% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 36% +8.6%
10% -20.3% 36% -1.8%
15% -28.0% 34% -11.2%
20% -35.1% 34% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage46d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 17 $1 +$2 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 17 $7 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 17 $10 +$20 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 17 $2 +$8 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 16 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $4 +$7 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 16 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 16 $2 $0 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.60 · official $29.60 (match) · 106 history records