Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5097…6e93 weather 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%69W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$46
14 days−$42
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% +$15
crypto 31% +$7
other 18% −$142
sports 7% +$81
world 0% −$9
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.1% -12.4% 92% 6% -10.2%
≤30d 71 -7.7% -16.5% 89% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 76 -7.1% -16.0% 88% 4% -10.2%
all 78 -6.9% -15.8% 88% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 4% -10.2%
10% -23.8% 3% -18.8%
15% -31.2% 1% -26.6%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$35 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$792
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses69 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)78 / 93
History coverage136d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 90¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 26¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $351 +$30 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $255 +$105 +41%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $390 +$18 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 −$56 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $58 $0 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $237 +$6 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $216 +$15 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $222 +$38 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $188 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $240 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $251 4h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $34 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $200 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $110 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $100 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $100 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.98 · official $791.98 (match) · 254 history records